Study on Supply-Demand Dynamics and Prospects of Grain in China

Shengwei Wang; Yu Wang; Ganqiong Li; Yongen Zhang; Wen Yu

doi:10.62051/10ea8412

Authors

Shengwei Wang
Yu Wang
Ganqiong Li
Yongen Zhang
Wen Yu

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.62051/10ea8412

Keywords:

I grain; production; consumption; trade; price.

Abstract

Food security is a major strategic issue of global significance related to economic development and social stability as well as an important foundation for national security. This paper mainly analyzed the changes in production, consumption, trade and price of grain in China, and applied the CAMES model to predict the trends in grain production, consumption, trade and price in the next decade (2024-2033) based on certain hypotheses of economic and social conditions and agricultural production conditions. According to the study, in the foreseeable future, grain production capacity will see a steady rise; consumption will continue a rigid growth (food consumption being basically flat, slower development of feed consumption, stable-to-declining oil extraction consumption, slight rise in industrial consumption and seed consumption and losses trending flat-to-down); imports will show a diversified development pattern and a downward trend; exports will witness a small increase; and price will be reasonable and fluctuate upwardy.

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